Adrian Negrescu,
manager Frames
Romania is undergoing a period of profound transformation, and the economic recovery plan has become the government’s top priority for the 2030 horizon. The past five years have been a real financial roller coaster for our country. The economy grew strongly in 2021 by nearly 6 percent, quickly recovering the losses caused by the pandemic. Subsequently, the pace slowed drastically due to inflation and global crises. The years 2023 and 2024 brought modest gains in Gross Domestic Product, below 2.5 percent. The year 2025 marked a tentative stabilization, though insufficient to narrow the gaps with the West. Now, the authorities are proposing a new development model based on major strategic investments, seeking to move beyond the model strictly based on consumption.
What does the current snapshot of the economy look like, and what lies ahead for the labor market?
Industrial production over the past three years reflects the ongoing struggles of major factories. Between 2023 and 2025, Romanian industry significantly slowed down. Huge energy costs and declining demand from European partners have led to a steady contraction of this vital sector. The manufacturing industry was among the hardest hit, directly affecting export volumes.
Throughout this difficult period for industry, retail trade served as the lifeline that kept the economy afloat. Domestic consumption has grown steadily, fueled strongly by wage increases in both the public and private sectors.
In recent months, unfortunately, consumption has also begun to show increasingly strong signs of crisis. And the effects were felt immediately, with the economy entering a technical recession that risks turning into an economic crisis.
What are the official estimates regarding the exchange rate and foreign investment?
Is this just a snapshot of the moment? Will we be able to overcome this crisis, which has recently been amplified by the effects of the war in the Middle East—rising fuel and gas prices?
The good news is that the economy has restructured— major companies, first and foremost, have reconfigured their offerings, restructured their expenses, and entered 2026 in much healthier, more resilient positions.
Based on official estimates, the government forecasts an average annual economic growth of over 3 percent for the 2026–2030 period.
Official plans rely on attracting massive foreign direct investment, which is vital for the country’s modernization. The government’s target is to exceed an annual inflow of 8 billion euros in the coming years. Regarding the national currency, the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis anticipates a slow but strictly controlled depreciation. The euro/leu exchange rate is expected to hover around 5 lei per euro, gradually moving toward 5.30 lei by the end of the decade.
International financial institutions, however, are somewhat more cautious in their assessments. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the European Commission estimate annual economic growth of between 2.8 and 3.2 percent for Romania over the 2026–2030 period. Foreign experts firmly link this growth to the full absorption of funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. At the same time, international institutions point out that recovery is impossible without a rapid and credible reduction of the record budget deficit.
Which industries will drive the economy upward over the next five years
One thing is certain. The recovery can no longer rely exclusively on imports and debt-fueled domestic consumption.
The medium-term strategy must place a massive emphasis on industries capable of generating high added value.
The information technology and telecommunications sector remains the country’s main engine of growth, exports, and innovation. Another major challenge is the green transition and sustainability. Massive investments in renewable energy will create thousands of well-paid jobs and attract huge amounts of foreign capital.
Likewise, the construction sector is expected to perform well, mainly due to major road, hospital, and railway infrastructure projects funded with European money.
Last but not least, the defense industry promises unprecedented growth thanks to the SAFE program.
The extremely tense geopolitical context in the region makes local production of weapons, ammunition, and military technology a strategic priority, capable of generating significant economic revenue by 2030.
Do we have reason to be optimistic? I believe so, if we look at it from the perspective of the business environment’s resilience. We have a much healthier economy, better prepared for challenges than during the previous crisis.
We have much better economic know-how, and new technologies can help us become what we want to be—a strong, resilient economy capable of exporting goods and services at a competitive level.
